“Television won’t last. It’s a flash in the pan.” — Mary Somerville, pioneer of radio educational broadcasts, 1948 (Top 30 Failed Technology Predictions) is one failed technology prediction. Television has involved from “a rotating-disc technology to transmit pictures over wire” (Television History – The History of TV) to displaying on plasma screens and web TV. Close captioning technology allows people with hearing problems to follow television shows by reading the text displayed on the screen. In February 2009, analog transmission of television signals will change to exclusive transmission by digital broadcast. My prediction is that television will continue evolving in the foreseeable future.
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But when you think about television it is inefficient. The person sits in front of the TV and accepts one-way communication and entertainment. This technology has to become interactive and mobile. I would like to see my eye classes have access to the internet and television broadcasts. Where I can communicate and control the outcome of a movie in real-time. Where it becomes an individual experience as apposed to s mass-media experience.
I don't think it's inefficient at all. Have you ever tried to describe a statistical algorithm over the phone? I have and it's very hard. We do much better with pictures and TV offers exactly that. I think the problem is with the content not with the efficiency of the technology.
Nigel
Could it be that Mary Somerville, a radio person, wasn't really making a prediction, but rather trying to scare people into sticking with radio (job security)? There seems to be a common theme that, when a new technology comes along, people who make their living from the old technology, attempt to keep it from overtaking them.
Good point that I tend to forget. Many people don't like to make change and seem to suggest new ideas and technology won't become popular.
We are rarely comfortable having our opinions and projections publicly disclosed as inaccurate, imprecise or ill-informed. *grins* Yet, by exploring the boundaries, we have an opportunity to reflect and learn.
It is not unlike Mark Twain's comment when he said "It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak up and remove all doubt."
Yet, as movers and shakers, we can positively impact our society and business if we use caution and a rigorous process for conducting our assessments.
We select and use reasonable analytical tools and techniques to assess, examine, analyze, summarize and share the respective merits of our discoveries to plan for the future.
General Observation:
Our class blog posts and comments have explored the merits and risks of applying certain tools and methods to different problems.
Many thanks to everyone for contributing to the class content! *cheers*
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